Friday, August 14, 2009

My Box Office Predictions for the Weekend of 8/14/09 - 8/16/09

We have quite a few films coming out this week. "District 9" is my pick to be at the top of the box office, but could have done a lot better had it been rated PG-13. I'm not saying they should have made the film a PG-13, but box office totals could have been bigger for "District 9". "The Goods: Live Hard. Sell Hard" probably isn't going to do much damage at the box office this weekend. The film will be hurt by the lack of talk and commercials. Who knows, maybe it will be a surprise like "The Hangover" was, but I strongly doubt it, especially according to weak early online ticket sales. "The Time Travler's Wife" could bring in decent money. It isn't an unsafe bet to say that its target audience are females ages 16 up. But don't expect it to do too much damage; its online ticket sales aren't near as high as "District 9", or even last week's "G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra". "Bandslam" may bring in a fair amount of money. I can't quite predict sales for the film too well since I have only heard about it just in the last week. With a weekend full of R-rated films, and adult romances, "Bandslam" may or may not bring in a large amount of box office. If it does, it will be because of the kids, and the early surprisingly positive critical buzz. "Ponyo", the new animated film from Japanese director Hayao Miyazaki, has generated a strong critical buzz, at this moment the film holds a 97% approval rating on However, the film is in limited release, and despite the big names in its voice cast, I would be suprised to find that more than three out of every ten average movie goers has even heard of the film. If it does anything above average at the box office this weekend, it will be because of true lovers of film looking for another film to add to their top 10 list for 2009.

This is the first time I'm making a box office predictions list, so if it turns out to be very far from what does happen, that's my excuse. My box office predictions for the weekend of 8/14/09 - 8/16/09 are:

1. District 9 ($38 mil.)
2. G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra ($21 mil.)
3. The Time Traveler's Wife ($18 mil.)
4. Julie & Julia ($14 mil.)
5. Bandslam ($11 mil.)
6. The Goods: Live Hard. Sell Hard. ($9 mil.)
7. Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince ($7 mil.)
8. G-Force ($4 mil.)
9. Funny People ($3 mil.)
10. A Perfect Getaway ($2 mil.)


  1. I was going to do some predictions but I got caught up yesterday and ended up not doing them. I think District 9 will go about the 32-39 range which is about where it needs to be considering it only had a Production Budget of 30mil (according to G.I Joe needs to do 30million as they have to make about 300million to cover 175budget+heavy marketing. I think you're about where everyone else is going in the 19-24 range.

    I am sad to see once again Ponyo, a great film by Miyazaki get the "oh we're giving it a good release" treatment when it offers so much more than they allow it to.

    Good predictions though we'll see how it all breaks down :).

  2. Oh yeah I watched it when it came out in Japan, I'm a sickeningly big fan of Hayao Miyazaki so I had to get my hands on a copy of it when it first came out. It's definitely one of his more kid-friendly films, not like his recent Howl's Moving Castle, but not quite as good as Spirited Away. A lot more like his films Kiki's Deliver Service and My Neighbor Totoro (english titles).

    I'm hoping it sneaks into the top 10 as a sleeper, might inspire them to give the next one, if he ever does another one, a full treatment release.

  3. I wanted to see "Ponyo", but the closest place it came out was an hour away from where I live, and the ticket is also two times the price of a ticket at my town's theater. Hopefully I get to see it on DVD.

  4. I think The Goods will do better because of how much advertising it did. And Ponyo might crack the top 10, maybe. But nice to see a new segment in the blog. It looks good.

  5. Thanks. Hopefully "Ponyo" does good, 'cause now that I think about it, if it does well enough, my town's discount theater might pick it up in a month or two, and that way I won't have to wait for the DVD. Are you going to see "Ponyo" or "The Goods" this weekend?

  6. Early Numbers in ( Looks like District 9 is on target for 30mil with GI Joe and Time Traveler looking to maybe break 20 (usually you do about x2.25-2.5 for saturday/sunday). Ponyo will probably pick up around 3mil and end around 9. With The Goods at about 5-6 for starters.

  7. Cool. I'm hoping to go see "District 9" tomorrow. I still have a shot at seeing it tonight, but I doubt that'll happen. Anything you going to see this weekend?

  8. I'll be seeing District 9 tomorrow definitely, beyond that I'll prob wait for DVD on the rest. Maybe Time Traveler's if I get a date in the near future :P

  9. Haha, I can't wait to see "District 9", but if I don't get time to see it today, I think I'll wait 'til next Friday to see it along with "Inglourious Basterds".